To create a winning team in fantasy, you need to start with a base team and then add a few trump or differential players for a unique team. This is where you can use the player selection percentage to create a unique combination.
This article has been written with a focus on grand league or mega league in fantasy cricket.
Before we start, remember, cricket and fantasy is a game of uncertainty. There are no rules, only data and observations. Based on these observations and data from previous matches, you can also increase your chances of winning big.
Let’s get started with how to create base team and then we will see how you can select trump or risky players to add to your base team.
Base Team
Base team is the foundation of your fantasy team. A good base team normally has at least 6-7 players in with high-selection and mid-selection percentage in fantasy apps (between 30-100% selection percentage).
Majority of your base team should include players with medium or high selection percentage as there is a higher chance they will perform well. If you make more than 1 team, these are the players you should try to select in most of your teams.
But every player can fail, even the best of the best. So how should you decide which players to keep and drop the rest?
How to choose players for your base team in fantasy:
1. Player Records: Always check for player venue records and past history.
Some players just love playing in certain stadiums or against certain teams. Maybe they love playing on that pitch, or the opposition team suits their playing style, or maybe they are a local player and the crowd loves them. Whatever the reason.
If a player has a good record at a particular venue or against a particular team, there is a good chance they can perform well.
2. Past Matches Data: Check previous match records and try to understand how that venue has behaved in the past and what kind of players performed well in the past.
A venue might be high scoring, some are good for spinners or some are good for pace bowling. Always check venue records and select players for your base team accordingly.
3. Recent Form: This is the most important criteria while selecting your base team. Always try to add in-form players to your team.
Why? Because when a player is in good form, there’s a high chance of them performing consistently and giving good fantasy points.
You will notice an in-form player appearing in the dream team again and again during a tournament. This is because form is temporary and players perform well in phases.
Most players perform well for a few months and then have a drop in form. Even top players like Virat Kohli or Sachin Tendulkar have gone through periods of poor form and low performance.
An out of form player generally struggles for many matches and can drag your team down. So always prefer to choose in-form players for your base team.
Your base team in fantasy should include mostly in-form players with selection percentage between 30% to 100%.
The combination and choice of players will depend on your risk and research. Try to rotate these players if you are making more than 1 team as every player can fail in cricket. Nobody performs in every match, so keep that in mind.
Impact on Rank
1. If you select more players with higher selection (more than 60% or 70% selection percentage), you are basically selecting more safer players which a lot of people are also selecting. If these popular players perform well, it won’t give you a huge advantage as most other teams have them too.
2. If you choose more mid-selection percentage players (30% to 50% selection percentage), your team will be riskier. Which means there is more chance of loss but also higher chance of a unique team.
Depending on your strategy, you can create different combinations with different combinations of selection percentage.
Differential Picks or Trump Players or Risky Players
What are trump players or differential picks or risky players in fantasy?
People use different terms but in simple terms, trump players in fantasy are lower-selection percentage players who have the potential to do well but are being ignored by most fantasy players.
These players have low selection because they are thought to be risky and most people are avoiding them. Why?
Because there’s a high chance that these players won’t perform. This could be due to any reason:
- Player is young or inexperienced, so not expected to have a huge impact consistently.
- Player bats too low or bowls very few overs, so does not have enough opportunity.
- Player is not in form or has not performed for many matches.
These players are risky for a reason but if you manage to select the right players, you can win big in fantasy.
In fact, if you don’t select any trump or risky players in your team, you have almost zero chance to win the grand league in fantasy.
If you prefer to play safe, you should change your strategy and focus on smaller leagues.
Notice closely, and you will see almost every grand league winning team in fantasy has at least 2-4 such trump or risky players.
Some examples of Dream Team from recent matches:
Here you can only see the top 5 players from the dream team based on points, but you can verify yourself. Check the dream team in your favourite fantasy app and you will notice a similar pattern in almost all matches.
How to select trump or risky players for your fantasy team:
1. Player Records: Check if there’s any low selection player who could perform based on pitch conditions, recent form in practice matches, or matchups against opposition. This can be done by checking records or stats before every match.
Some players have good records against a team or have a good matchup. For example, if a team has many left handed batters, an off spinner from the bowling team has a chance to perform well. These players have the potential to be good trump picks.
2. New Player in Team: Many times, specially in T20 matches like the Indian Premier League, teams bring young players only for particular matches. This could be because the player has a good matchup against the opposition or their game suits the pitch conditions.
Team management has experts and technology to understand the weakness of opposition team and player matchups. If they are bringing in a new player who has not played before, there is a good chance the player could perform well.
3. Opportunity to Perform: This is such an important point that will change how you think about fantasy and risky players.
Not every low selection percentage player is a trump player. Even if a player has a low selection percentage, you should check if that player actually has an opportunity to perform. What does this mean?
For example, in the IPL, all teams include young players but these players don’t get a lot of chances to bat or bowl. If a player is batting at number 7 or 8 or bowling only 1 over in a T20 match, they won’t have a lot of opportunity to perform and get points.
On the other hand, you will frequently see a bowler bowling a full quota of overs, or a batsman batting in the top 4 or 5, but still they are not being selected by most users in their fantasy teams. These players have a good opportunity to perform and can be great trump picks. You can even say these are slightly ‘safe’ trump picks.
Impact on Rank
If you select multiple players with a low selection percentage (less than 30%), your team will be highly risky with a big chance of loss. It is a high reward high loss strategy.
But if your goal is to win the mega league, you cannot make your team with only safe players. If you research and choose your trump players correctly, you have a good chance to win the grand league or mega league in fantasy.
Conclusion
Selection percentage of players is a very useful tool to create a unique winning fantasy team, with a mix of high selection and low selection percentage players.
Based on your risk, you can make multiple combinations which can be less or more risky based on how you select the base team and trump players.